Ohio State is now No.2 in the coaches poll and No. 3 in the AP poll. So we could have a situation where one of the top 4 teams is shut out of its league title game.
I think the committee will go Bama, Ohio State, Louisville, Michigan. In that order. #2-4 all have a road loss and I think that is what puts them above the other 1 loss teams. 5-6 are probably Clemson and someone else…not sure who though. My guess would be Wisconsin but I would not shocked it if its Washington.
Going forward I think Bama is a lock for the playoff. They probably beat Auburn and whoever comes out of the SEC East. Even if they lose one of those it would be hard to see a scenario where they are left out of the playoff.
Big 10 champ is also almost certainly in.
I think Clemson or Louisville gets in as well, most likely Clemson assuming they win out.
Last spot? Washington or Washington St I think is in if either wins out and wins the Pac 12. If either does not win out I think it will be a close race for a second Big 10 team and Louisville assuming they win out alongside of Clemson. There is an outside chance for OU though if they run the table in the Big 12.
Washington is out already IMO. They have always been considered lower because of being in the PAC-10. The loss gives reason for the committee to keep them out even if they win the rest. A team like Ohio st. Will get in over them any day. The committee also has to give a good reason to put Louisville over Clemson since they lost to them if they both stay at one loss.
Having watched all of the top dozen or so, most of them multiple times, OU has far and away the best offense of any of them. Their defense is definitely suspect, but their offense is powerful. Mayfield has some ridiculous rating of like 194, they have arguably the best 1-2 running back tandem in the country with Mixon and Perine, and Westbrook is a top-10 draft pick receiver.
But that defense is weak. Stoops really needs to get rid of his brother and get a real offensive coordinator in.
The committee already mentioned that they will heavily weigh a team winning their conference championship. If that’s the case I think its going to be hard for them to send and Ohio State that doesn’t win their conference to the playoffs over a Louisville/OU/Washington team that wins out. (Even though they are better)
Basically I think the committee will decide from the conference champions or any non power conference undefeated team. You aren’t going to see two teams from the same conference in the playoffs.
The Big Ten presents a particular problem in the National Playoff picture. If PSU and OSU both win out, OSU is out of the Big Ten championship game. Like MattN said, they tend to frown upon not winning your conference. I dont see them putting PSU in over Clemson, Louisville or Washington, if all of those teams win out. So there is a very possible scenario where the Big Ten gets squeezed out of the playoff this season. U of M could put a stop to that issue by beating OSU but does anyone expect that to happen in Columbus, after the poor showing Michigan just put up?
In that scenario I think it’s more likely that both PSU and OSU will make it in than both being left out. I think the conferences on the clock are the Big-12 and Pac-12. Will be hard to make the playoff w/o more chaos
Well, Speight, Michigan’s starting QB is reportedly out with a broken collarbone. O’Korn, the backup has played some mop up duty and has been effective but considering that U of M has to be ready to face OSU on the road in two weeks, I have serious doubts they will be ready for a Buckeye team that has been brutally dominate since their loss to Penn State.
After watching ESPN today discussing the playoff format, I have real doubts that OSU will get a shot at the playoffs unless Penn State stumbles. They were pretty adamant that OSU needs to take the Big Ten Championship as the committee is weighing that heavily. Dont forget, not having a championship hurt the Big 12 last year in the seedings. I really doubt that both OSU and PSU will make it if you have several conference champions with 1 loss. With Louisville, Clemson, Washington, PSU and WVU set to possibly win their respective championships, I just dont see a spot for OSU. Of course theres still a couple weeks left for things to shake out but its not looking good for OSU right now.
Ohio State over Louisville is a no-brainer, IMHO (because Clemson still holds the tie breaker neither would be a conference champ).
The one thing in OSU’s favor is that if there are no major upsets they’d have 3 wins over top 10 teams and a potential top 15 in Nebraska with the only loss being to another top 10 in PSU. The other thing is that they’re Ohio State and that gets a lot of play and money flowing nationally, unfair as that may be. All assuming they get the job done vs TTUN, of course.
On the other hand, if a 1-loss OSU gets left out maybe that’ll be enough to get the 8 team playoff we should’ve had from the start.
If it came down to a non-champ OSU and B12 Champ OU, I’m not sure how they can justify OU over OSU considering
:both teams have the exact same record 11-1
:OSU beat OU @ OU decisively.
In that scenario I think OSU will get the nod - I can’t see the conference champ designation helping OU overcome the fact that they already lost a game to OSU.
That scenario might be one that would get OSU into the playoff. I see OSU beating an injury damaged Michigan easily now. Looking at PSU’s schedule they should win thier way into the Big10 CG, where they will lose if they play Wisconsin.
I think the Pac12 is going to get shut out of the playoff.
OU also lost to Houston
Forgot about that. Most experts think West Virginia ends up winning that conference now anyway. They finish league play with home games.
I don’t think the committee is watching football.
How in the wide world of sports is Michigan #3? They lost to an average, at best, Iowa team (a four loss team) and they don’t drop a single rank?
Ranking Ohio State #2 is going to bite the committee in the ass, because Ohio State isn’t going to lose the rest of the season and there is no way that they can be invited over the Big 10 conference champion. Ohio State is very unlikely to be conference champion as this would require Penn State to lose to either Rutgers or Michigan State.
So a two loss Penn State or two loss Wisconsin team will be the Big Ten champion, both will have a lower rank than Ohio State. If Wisconsin wins the championship game that means Wisconsin will be the Big Ten champ despite going 0-2 against Ohio State and Michigan.
Agreed. Why bother playing if a loss doesn’t actually matter (sorry, Washington)?
Eh - a bit of a weird week since all the teams that might have jumped Michigan also lost. I thought Michigan would drop to 4 but overall the top 4 is what I expected.
I am surprised that Clemson is over Louisville. I mean, Clemson has the head to head, so there’s that. But it was at Clemson and it was a close game that Louisville easily could have won. Clemson’s loss is much worse than Louisville’s IMO.
It will be interesting to see what happens if Ohio State wins out but Penn State or Wisconsin is the Big 10 champ.
Its strange that Clemson and Michigan both lose to inferior teams and are still in at 1 loss but Washington is down to #6 after losing to a surging #13 USC team*. You could say strength of schedule but the Pac 12 currently has 6 ranked teams**
*Keep in mind my cardinal and gold colored glasses.
**I think its a joke that the Pac12 has 6 ranked teams. It appears to me that everyone other than Washington and recently USC sucks.
Yup…this could be a mess. How does Ohio State get in without Penn State getting in should they win out?