Election rumor thread

How much does any of this really matter right now though? Until states start pushing the post-workday rush, seems like things would still be up for being quite variable.

yeah, you have to remember what the exit polls were saying in 2000, and how far off they were in a lot of cases, and take all of this with a real grain of salt.

But it is election day, and it is a lot of fun. ;)

Unless there’s a systematic variation, once you get a huge sample size it’s very likely to reflect the actual population.

Yeah, I understand the statistical viewpoint, but how much of a systematic variation is there likely to be between “People who can only vote before 8 and after 5” and “People who can vote any damn time they like”?

I’d tend to think there might be a big one, since there’s implied age related factors (as well as economy related factors) in those groups. Then again, I don’t know how to parse out “many blue collar factory workers have to wait until after work to vote” vs. “all the executives and corporate drones wait until after work to vote” either.

But I’d imagine there’s historical data that tracks tendancies vs. voting time somewhere, and you junkies are just the people to point me to it! :)

So if there’s a tie in the number of electoral votes, it gets tossed into the House, right? Something tells me that wouldn’t be good for Kerry. Personally, I think it would make much more sense to use the popular vote as a tie-breaker, but what do I know?

I agree with the popular vote being a decent tie breaker.

The current system really annoys me how it disregards the final popular vote total in some ways. If it goes to the House, Bush gets re-elected, which means we would have a president who was elected and re-elected after losing the popular vote.

The sheer stupidity of that has to mean something.

Yeah, I understand the statistical viewpoint, but how much of a systematic variation is there likely to be between “People who can only vote before 8 and after 5” and “People who can vote any damn time they like”?

Funny you ask – early exit polling almost always favors the Republican candidate, since, demographically speaking, more Dems tend to turn out in the afternoon/evening. For a case in point, see 2000, where the early exit polling was categorically leaning toward Bush.

Early exit polling in Kerry’s favor is particularly encouraging news for him.

I think I’m going to convert to Catholicism for a day just so I can pray.[/quote]

Lol, get MS to join you and I guarantee God will swing the election in Kerry’s favor.

Keep in mind also: exit polling includes no “early voting”. In some states (IA, FL, PA, WV, for example) “early voting” ended up being 10-20% of registered voters.

In all of those states, the EV favors Kerry.

Grain of salt, but if you’re a Democrat, there’s nothing to be upset about in those numbers at all.

Public employees, union employees, and university students (to name three large Democrat constituencies, at least in theory) generally all have off on Election Day, either by statute or by contract. (One exception: public school teachers often use it as a day for conferences.) Most other employers don’t give it as a day off. Retired people obviously can vote all day as well.

Since it’s much easier to vote after 5 than before 8, I’d expect to see a natural bias towards the all-dayers listed above in any early exit poll.

Unemployed people also fall into this category, but I would expect that they’d be more likely to vote for the challenger than to follow a single party affiliation.

Exit polls show a 12 point drop in Latinos voting for Bush in Florida.

Come on, VA. If we pull that out it’s over. If you know anyone living there…

New leak at Wonkette:

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5

From the bowels of the Zogby forums:

Just listened to Zogby on Radio with O’reily, He said Florida is going Bush,(yeah) Colorado and Virginia could be Kerry pick ups in a surprise (boo) Penn was a lot closer than he thought it would be could go Bush(yeah) He seemed more confident on Florida than the other three!

http://interactive.zogby.com/fuse/messageview.cfm?catid=4&threadid=2731

I’m feeling good about this…

I just hope it doesn’t get too chaotic in the after-work voting.

NRO:

KEEP IN MIND [KJL]
I’m hearing not-encouraging things re 4 p.m. poll numbers. I gotta stress (and not because I am graping at straws, because it is true): these do not include absentee and early voters. Sopmething to bear in mind.

This Virginian already did his part.

Zogby calls it for Kerry.

He has been for a while leading up to the election. I hope he’s right, but we’ll see.

VA results should be posted at 7 PM EST:

http://sbe.vipnet.org/

He has been for a while leading up to the election. I hope he’s right, but we’ll see.[/quote]

But now it’s officialesque!

Luntz email, from Wonkette:

Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4