Slate’s latest:
The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:
Florida
Kerry 52
Bush 48
Ohio
Kerry 52
Bush 47
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Pennsylvania
Kerry 58
Bush 42
Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Wisconsin
Kerry 53
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 57
Bush 42
New Hampshire
Kerry 58
Bush 41
Maine
Kerry 55
Bush 44
New Mexico
Kerry 49
Bush 49
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 49
Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
I’m following the thing on TV and from Italy.
They are giving news of problems and irregularities in Florida and Kerry seems winning with a quite consistent gap.
I’m looking at Slate right now and they’ve got completely different numbers. Kerry still has a lead, but it’s razor thin. Can you link to where you got these?
Same place as you. They’re updating the page as they get new numbers. Be kind of nice of them to I don’t know make that obvious, but…
JD
Public employees, union employees, and university students (to name three large Democrat constituencies, at least in theory) generally all have off on Election Day, either by statute or by contract. (One exception: public school teachers often use it as a day for conferences.) Most other employers don’t give it as a day off. Retired people obviously can vote all day as well.
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I don’t know about public employees having the day off, really. Nobody around here does (at school), and none of the people I know who work for the states have the day off. However, my instincts would still say that the night rush would tend to favor the steadily employed, which I would think would tend to favor republicans. However, the aforementioned poll history from 2000 doesn’t point to this. shrug
Gonna be a looong night. ANd possibly week, and possibly month, and possibly… bleh.
The sad thing is that no matter who wins, approximately 50% of the country will feel like a loser (and we all lose in some ways, although I’m sure most folks think there’s a far better choice on one side or the other).
On the other hand, it’s pretty fascinating, and it should at least be heartening to see some really decent percentage numbers of eligible voters voting for a change. (I have the impression it’s generally at or less than 50% eligible voting, anyone have links to harder numbers for the last 3-5 presidential contests?)
Wonkette:
5:40 p.m.
CO Bush 50 Kerry 48
FL Kerry 51 Bush 49
IA Kerry 50 Bush 49
MI Kerry 51 Bush 47
MN Kerry 54 Bush 44
NV tied
NH Kerry 53 Bush 45
NJ Kerry 54 Bush 44
NM Kerry 50 Bush 48
OH Kerry 51 Bush 49
OR still too early to get accurate reading
PA Kerry 53 Bush 46
WI Kerry 51 Bush 48
Disclaims a birdie: “*** There appear be problems with exits in the following states that could be tipping numbers toward kerry: MN, NH, VT, PA, VA, CT, DE. described only as ‘serious’ issues we’re looking at. so i would not put too much faith in those results.”
Senate races after the jump.
AK still too early, but Knowles up 1
CO Salazar 51, Coors 47
FL Castor 51, Martinez 48
KY Bunning 52, Mongiardo 48
LA Vitter may get the 50 percent that would elect him, 51 percent
NC Burr 50 Bowles 49
OK Coburn 51 Carson 46
SC DeMint 51 Tenenbaum 48
SD Thune 52 Daschle 48
Drudge, including hliarious don’t-panic-yet-GOP line:
17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: KERRY FINDS COMFORT IN MEDIA EXIT POLLS; BOTH CAMPS URGE CAUTION /// Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states… OH Tied FL Kerry +2 PA Kerry+2-4 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Bush +7 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]]… Developing…
Corner says that late voting is historically republican.
Ah, but I’ve heard the opposite!
www.mysterypollster.com says there’s no reliable information either way, for what it’s worth.
Slate:
In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he’s up by three and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.
6 PM exits from Kos:
Kerry Bush
PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MI 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49
Your signal to noise ratio is getting a bit out of whack, Jason.
Feels like it’s mostly noise at the moment anyway…
Just you wait until the VA returns show up, then.
You guys have to realize that Jason is a polifanboi and today is better than xmas for polifanbois. Let them gush and hyperventilate and discuss meaningless minutae and statistically flawed early prognostications if it makes them happy :D
Interesting results from Michigans there.
That’s what you get on the Internets.
The one that has Bush up is probably MO.
Now NRO is posting random messages from inside the Bush campaign about confidence in Ohio & Florida. Very meaningful!
More meaningful insider rumors from Wonkette!
Karl Rove Attempts To Emit Human Tears #
6:40 p.m.
Naturally, we don’t want to jump any guns here. Oh sure we do, we’ll jump just about anything by this point. More squawking:A certain high ranking former republican senator called Karl Rove around 5:15 this evening. Bush’s brain sounded “dejected” and gave less than a 30% chance for a Bush win.
Birdie Chatter: Carville In Ecstasy #
6:10 p.m.James Carville, everyone’s favorite analyst/bald sex-gnome, is declaring smashing exit polls for Dems, we hear third or fourth or maybe fifth hand . . . ooo! Hands everywhere! it’s like an O’Reilly phone call over here! Also: turnout of 121 million. We picture him doing some sort of naked, Ashlee-esque jig, but then we hit ourselves in the forehead with our NBC-emblazoned mini Dewars bottle and the image passes. We also hear there’s a whole lot of conservative operatives crapping themselves. Of course, not Mary Matalin – as an alien life form, she does not crap.