Everything is terrible, Brazil edition

That’s unfortunate, 28 more days of fear for “our brothers”. I usually don’t pay that much attention, but that was a nice short post-election speech about doing the work.

It’s a lot worse than it seems. Congress and the Senate are now filled with far right representatives. We’re screwed, regardless of who wins the president race.

If I know anything about modern politics, this will only help his polling numbers going into the second round.

I wish I could say you’re wrong.

I hear he promised to take a bite out of crime.

Runoff is going on now:

As I type this Bolsonaro is ahead, which happened in the early hours of the first round too. Lula areas take longer to come in, apparently. In contrast to most other countries, the rural votes are what we want here. Won’t feel comfortable until Lula overtakes though.

accusations flying about

And Lula has taken the lead, thank goodness.

Hard to see Bolsonaro accepting a narrow result, especially given the behaviour linked above.

Yeah, pretty sure he’ll try a coup. The highway police thing was probably a test run of what he could try.

And even if that dirty trick fails and Lula wins, and Bolsonaro can’t muster a real coup, he’ll do everything in his power to sabotage as much as he possibly can before giving up power. The next few years will be hard, no doubt.

I am not an expert by any means, but my prediction is that he won’t try to pull a coup. His ammo was expended in the lead up to the election trying to suppress Lula’s vote. Now that the election will show Lula as the winner, he’ll try to sabotage all he can before leaving and planning to get power back at the next election (while his friends in the military and police help him).

According to google, 116.5m votes have been cast with 94% reporting.

Total votes in the first round was 123.7m.

So it seems that overall turnout is not going to be notably lower than during the first round. I am shocked that Bolsonaro has done so well in the runoff, it means (assuming no foul play which is a bad assumption in Brazil) that most of the third-party voters in the first round went for Bolsonaro in the run off. Which makes zero sense as the third and fourth places in the first round lean Lula.

It would make more sense if you understood Brazil. For instance, in my state, Bolsonaro lost the first round, but the congressman elected with the most votes in the whole state was a Bolsonaro-sanctioned candidate. A terrible one too, I might add.

Brazilians are not known for political or ideological consistency. Or for their reasoning and critical analysis skills. Things often don’t make sense, but if you live here long enough you begin to see certain patterns.

Well, good luck, and hope everything goes right.

Has Bolsanaro acknowledged his defeat yet? Has Bolsanaro committed to peacefully handing over power? I feel like all the celebration is premature until those events occur.

The answer is no to both questions. Still no words from him or any of his ministers.

Meanwhile a washed up reality show host (Trump) is trying to sabotage all democracies by throwing support behind the idea that the election was rigged on his social media swap.