Oscars 2020

Just watched The Lighthouse, I can’t believe Dafoe and Pattinson aren’t getting Oscar nominations. Insanely good performances, both of them.

Happy to see Little Women and Marriage Story and Parasite get a bunch of noms. Portrait of a Lady on Fire and The Lighthouse getting virtually nothing is disappointing, but ah well, can’t have everything.

Yeah, Dafoe’s Neptune monologue by itself deserves every possible award.


Yeah, would have expected another nod or two for The Lighthouse. Oh well. Happy to see Parasite getting recognition beyond ‘Best Foreign’.

Yeah I have a feeling it will, too. I watched it this weekend, and was really excited about it, but it just didn’t work for me. I’m pretty close to 50/50 on Tarantino, but with this cast, and the 60’s vibe, I thought it was a shoe-in. I didn’t hate it, but it just didn’t push my buttons, either.

I still have a few of the Best Picture noms to watch, but so far my favorite has been Ford vs. Ferrari.

I saw The Two Popes yesterday. It’s exactly the type of movie that I love the most. Most of the movie is just a conversation between two people. The director zooms in close so that each person’s face almost fills the entire screen, and the writing and the actors are up to the task of carrying that kind of intimate close up for over 90 minutes. Amazing. I absolutely loved it. I’ll try to watch Marriage Story, Irishman and Dolemite before my Netflix membership expires on Sunday, but it’s going to be hard to top this as my favorite movie of 2019 now.

I really enjoyed The Two Popes too. I didn’t have much prior interest but the Oscar nominations made me pay attention and I am glad that I did. It’s a modest movie with a big heart, and I felt the themes of the movie extended far beyond the Catholic Church and into faith more generally, aging, and loneliness.

Netflix has had its best year yet. You really should watch Marriage Story, I thought it was really good. Dolemite is good fun as well. The Irishman was a big disappointment for me, but clearly many people liked it so probably worth giving it a go too. Get to it!

Watched Pain and Glory last night and it was wonderful. Banderas was great in the lead, and the supporting cast was pretty fantastic as well. It’s a really thoughtful look back at the main character’s life (which I’ve read is autofiction of Almodovar’s life), which could have turned all sorts of melancholy, angry, etc, but was instead uplifting in much the way Little Women was. I can’t believe I’ve gotten so lucky to see those two back to back in the last month. It’s a slow burn, but the scenes at the theatre and with an old flame are just perfect. Two thumbs up.

So this is on soon, and I think it’s time we start some speculation!

I’m going to list who I think will win, and who I want to win, in the major categories. If more than a couple of other people do the same, I will do the hard yards after the day to crunch the numbers on how well everyone did. Note that the following are not based on reading any articles, and I only have a hazy memory on how the films/actors did in the other awards, so as you’ll be able to tell from my ramblings these are not educated guesses.

Best Film:
Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time…
Who Should Win: Marriage Story

I am a big fan of Tarantino and Once Upon a Time. I loved seeing it in the theaters, and I just rewatched it tonight and thought it was almost as good the second time around. I think it will win out over 1917 and Joker.

Of all the films in the top list that I have seen, which is 7/10, marriage story struck me the most. It was a fairly simple movie but it made the most out of its actors and it had the effect of staying with me longer than the others. I have to root for it for its emotional resonance, but overall a fantastic list of films this year.

Best Male Actor:
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

I think this will be an Oscar that is not only awarded for the performance this year, which was tremendous and elevated the Joker movie far higher than it deserved to go, it will also be an Oscar that is given for a cumulative career. Phoenix is an amazing actor and more than any other in the last decade has put his passion and commitment into his roles to entertain us. The Master, Inherent Vice, Walk the Line, etc…

Really tough category this year, if Phoenix takes it this year Adam Driver should win it next year for Marriage Story. Or they should give out two awards this year! Dicaprio was so great too.

Best Female Actor:
Who Will Win: Scarlett Johansson
Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Ashamedly I have not seen 4 of the 5 movies represented here. I am a big fan of Saoirse Ronan though.

Best Director:
Who Will Win: Sam Mendes
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino

This is a tough one. I think if Once Upon a Time misses out on best picture there may have been a number of voters who went with QT for best director as a consolation prize, which may give him the deserved win here.

Best Male Actor (Supporting):
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt
Who Should Win: Brad Pitt

This is a tough one. Brad Pitt plays Brad Pitt in the movie. He has the same way of delivering lines in so many of his movies. But it’s so fun to watch, Cliff Booth was a role made for the guy and he owns it. If Joe Pesci or Hopkins wins I would not be disappointed at all, both were great to see.

Best Female Actor (Supporting):
Who Will Win: Laura Dern
Who Should Win: Laura Dern

Laura Dern is great and her performance in Marriage Story was top notch. Her character seemed a little too similar to her one in Big Little Lies, but was still very entertaining to watch.

Best Screenplay (Original):
Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time
Who Should Win: Marriage Story / Once Upon a Time

Once Upon a Time was a great film, but if I think about all of its parts: the acting, the directing, the sets, and the screenplay, I would have to say the screenplay is the weakest aspect. If he didn’t have amazing actors to work with I doubt the movie would have worked at all. With Marriage Story, I really enjoyed the screenplay and would not be sad at all if it takes the award here.

Best Screenplay (Adapted):
Who Will Win: The Irishman
Who Should Win: The Two Popes

I just can’t help but think that the Irishman may come out ahead here. I thought the two popes was a really great movie, and along with the actors the main reason for that was the honesty and insightfulness of the screenplay. It does alot with a little.

I love the idea of this! I’ve got a few more to watch before I weigh in (just a few days to go!) but so far, the movie I have ENJOYED most (is that a metric?) was Ford vs. Ferrari. I agree with you that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is likely to win Best Picture, and I can respect it, but it just didn’t land with me. Marriage Story was pretty great, and Scarlett and Adam both did a great job, but I don’t think I pick it for Best Picture.

Probably right about Joaquin Phoenix as well.

Full recap after I see The Irishman and Little Women, plus anything else I can squeeze in for some of the actor/actress nominees.

These are my predictions. I’ve only seen a few of these movies this year, but I’ve listened to a lot of people talk about the others on podcasts! This makes me highly informed!

Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
(partly because “Hollywood movie,” but also because it sounds like a four-quadrant kind of film)

Best Actor
Adam Driver

Best Actress
Renee Zellweger
(People are saying the movie is crap but she’s amazing??)

Best Supporting Actor
Joe Pesci

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern

Best Director
Sam Mendes

Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig

Best Score
John Williams
(This is basically going to be his last Star Wars, right?)

Best Animated Film
Toy Story 4

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins (1917)

Best Howling Prayer to a Pagan God in a Film
Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

Right on animated film, but wrong on supporting actor (Brad Pitt), so far.

And Parasite pulls out a surprise on original screenplay.

Another surprise! Waititi wins for adapted screenplay.

That Frozen performance was really cool.

Uhhhhh…Little Women was sitting right there.

Yeah, apparently it was obvious to everyone for the last two weeks that the award was going to Brad Pitt.

Little Women picks up the award for costume design.

Awards are all over the place right now. No sense of momentum for any of the Big Picture nominees.

So far we’re 8 for 8 I think.

This was a year with a lot of heavy, heavy favorites. Lots of herding.

Impressive accuracy so far!

Lots of sportsbook favorites winning. We felt kinda guilty about our predictions because they’re so low-risk this year. If we’re wrong on a category from here on out, lots of folks are going to be wrong.

Best Picture is the biggest variable, I think.