There’s a whole bunch of free parameters in that model. It’s mostly just a paper demonstrating the consequences of various modelling assumptions (and the freedom we do still have in the model parameters). New data will slowly restrict that freedom in parameter space.
Antibody tests will change everything.
I don’t agree. On the first page (which is not merely an abstract, but also seems to contain their interpretation), they state that that “the results we present suggest … have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity”. Why? Because according to their model, if the fatality is high, the epidemic would have had to start after the first detected case, which obviously can’t be true.
They lose the “we’re just modeling different scenarios” defense when they start making claims like that about the real world based on the model outputs.
Imperial team have updated their estimate of R0 to 3 (which is terrifying).
China/WHO said R0 was 2-2.25, and the Diamond Princess data would appear to bear that out so this isn’t just a matter of dishonest CCP data (even though you expect R0 to be higher on a cruise ship).
Singaporean infection control modelling suggests their infection control measures (which are working) start to break down around R0 = 2.25
So there’s something funny going on with the numbers for this disease (or masks make a huge difference - R0 is context dependent after all).
You’re right. This makes little sense then.
I would believe masks make a big difference out in the wild. People keep forgetting that it’s not just about immediate aerosol spray. It’s the breathing, coughing, sneezing that attaches the virus to surfaces, and of course unmasked people will still cough into their hands as well creating a concentration of virus they then transfer to everything they touch for 3 hours.
Would be nice if we could actually buy masks.
But again, those masks only help those who are infected. If you are coughing or sneezing - for any reason (allergies) - then it makes sense to wear them if you could get them. But there’s no evidence that I’ve seen that simply breathing passes this virus along. I mean, I suppose if you talk with enough enunciation that you’re spitting a bit. But for most normal people, talking isn’t a problem. So sneezing/coughing - sure. Although you could protect others just as well (I’m guessing) by coughing or sneezing into a handkerchief, and washing it when you get home.
@jpinard and @ChiTownBluesFan There is a whole thread about masks. It was… Intense. Let’s not do it here.
Breathing definitely does, in droplets in your breath. It just doesn’t travel as far away from your head as coughing.
It really would make sense for everybody to wear masks if we had enough of them. But we don’t, so it doesn’t.
Be careful there, I sense that horse needs a flogging…
If the horse is trump, can we add tar, feathers, and a free infection as well?
It doesn’t, but its been discussed elsewhere, so I don’t feel compelled to add more.
Avoiding without linking to that discussion does not convince.
I didn’t realize that the thread was so well hidden. Especially since there has been a lot of discussions recently.
Here you go. Have fun.
As I said, there is a whole discussion about Masks already.
One of the great bits of all time.
Up there for Mulaney with “Salt and Pepper diner” and my own favourite, “The one thing they can’t replace.”
Jeebus. Super spreading.
Us speech spitters are gonna take the blame!
Joking aside, it’s why I had been wearing self-made paper masks at my mom’s in the past few weeks, knowing well most of my sweat is coming out of my mouth.