Tariff like it's 1897, Trump's Great Economy, Maybe the Best Ever


#604

Tariffs are so fucking easy.


#605

So, maybe don’t vote for someone who denounced free trade agreements, including specifically the TPP, while running for office.


#606

It’ll be cool if Democrats continue to support free trade after Trump is gone.


#607

To be fair, Obama was the one pushing it:

"Frankly, this is because of provisions negotiated by (former US president Barack Obama’s administration) for our benefit under the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

“Our competitors in Australia and Canada will now benefit from those provisions, as US farmers watch helplessly.”

And then the US dropped out!


#608

Oh, I know.


#609

Looks like the Trump Dump will be in full effect in 2019:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/bad-stuff-the-stock-market-worried-about-is-starting-to-happen

For the first time during Donald Trump’s presidency, both economic statistics and sentiment indicators are missing analysts’ expectations. So-called hard data includes government and private-sector data on consumer spending, jobs, manufacturing and housing, while the soft stats looks to Fed factory surveys and consumer confidence polls.

Anything that suggests cracks in the earnings and macro foundation would go down poorly on Wall Street. That’s what was happening Thursday

Essentially, this what happens to rational markets when you have an impulsive, poorly informed president who makes decisions based on feelings not facts. Oh, and it’s just the beginning, just wait until the downturn actually starts.


#610

Markets aren’t rational. Just sayin’.


#611

So much for

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/u-s-payrolls-rise-312-000-wages-top-estimates-in-jobs-blowout

Private payrolls rose by 301,000, well above the median estimate of 185,000. Government payrolls increased by 11,000.


#612

Curiously enough, both articles from Bloomberg…


#613

Non pay walled financial media is garbage click bait, Bloomberg or otherwise.


#614

Look at that, right after we brought in a Democratic House.


#615

Wages rose 3.2% in 2018, fastest rise since 2009. More manufacturing jobs added in 2018 than any year since 1997. December jobs numbers blew away expectations, over 400k people re-entered the workforce. All this in the teeth of a bunch of fed interest rate hikes and a trade war with China.


#616

Oh nooooooo!


#617

Yeah, I don’t know. Those are unambiguously good numbers. The economy is gangbusters, which is good news. I didn’t expect it, and I don’t know the reason for it, but there it is.


#618

Jobs are a lagging indicator. Those numbers are definitely good, but folks need to be prepared for what is coming next.

The global economy is slowing down. We’ve had 10 years of growth now, it’s going to enter into a recession.

Trump’s actions on the trade front are just going to exacerbate this. They’re largely mindless, and go against everything that reasonable economists on both sides of the aisle think.

TPP is going to be digging into the pockets of our Farmers, since we foolishly abandoned that deal while other countries did not.

Oh, and the shutdown right now is going to screw over those Farmers too by delaying the reporting processes they depend on… the farmers who are currently collecting socialist handouts to make up for the money they are losing from the trade war with China.


#619

Hey, welcome back Malathor. Haven’t seen you in a while. I hope life is treating you well. Best wishes.


#620

Imagine how much he could gloat if we weren’t in the middle of a useless trade war and government shutdown! NO COLLUSION!

Sad.


#621

Thank you! Much appreciated.


#622

I wouldn’t call the trade war useless, risky yes. The Chinese economy is slowing dramatically (while ours has not) and maybe that will give us enough leverage to extract a better trade framework, but the Chinese could just as well decide to not let themselves be pushed around and fuck both of us. The ultimate result is still up in the air.


#623

Nominal wages rose 3.2%.