Tariff like it's 1897, Trump's Great Economy, Maybe the Best Ever


#624

Good response, but that’s from September, wage growth has accelerated since then. We don’t know December inflation, but for the year real wage growth should be ok, in the 1.3% range. I’d say that as long as we keep importing massive amounts of cheap labor from overseas, it will be very difficult to boost real wage growth.


#625

But still lower than the rate in 2016 - far from the “fastest rise since 2009”.


#626

True, but the final numbers are not in for real as opposed to nominal. I’d like to see how much the impact of falling gas prices impacts the December inflation numbers.


#627

And yeah - it’s certainly true that real wage growth in US UK and Germany is much lower than one would expect if one assumes all three economies are in a “near full employment” state. It’s very different behaviour than what one would expect from macro 101.


#628

Thank you. Job numbers are a lagging indicator


#629

Not sure what thread it belongs in, but Krugman’s https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/opinion/the-economics-of-soaking-the-rich.html is a really good article on the current marginal tax rate hot issue.


#630

So you ran away for a year just waiting for a single drop of good news then come back. Where are your balls? Stick around through the bad too and realize it is OK to criticize the evil in the White House.

What about the 2 trillion we’ve added to the deficit since he’s been in office? During the good times we should never be adding to the deficit. But I get the feeling your solution is to cut people like myself off from healthcare and benefits to address the deficit instead of Republicans not wasting gobs of money on themselves and their pals and closing loopholes in the tax programs wherein I am paying a greater tax rate then the wealthiest.


#631

#632

Deficits don’t matter when Republicans are in office. That’s Conservative Bullshit 101.


#633

Just as Aceris noted that the more meaningful measure of wage growth is real and not nominal. I’ll point out that the meaningful measure of the national debt is the Debt to GDP ratio, which has in fact not budged.


#634

So under the best of circumstances we will increase the national debt to infinity and that’s suddenly OK with Republicans since it’s their dudes who keep blowing it up the worst. So what happens when GDP falls and we have a recession?


#635

As a rule, people who regard political opponents as “evil” are not people I have any interest in engaging with. That is also why I have not posted here much lately.


#636

Let’s be frank and say what the real issue is. Things have been a total shit-show and you didn’t want to admit you were wrong about anything. But the moment a bit of positive press hits you show back up.

We’re not morons dude. If it really was our demeanor then you wouldn’t have shown up now, when you’re able to gloat.


#637

Leave the snowflake alone, JP. You’ve hurt his feels.


#638

Like my parents used to say, “We weren’t born yesterday” and it’s insulting for him to use any excuse outside of the truth.

He comes back for what he deems a win, then runs off with his tail between his legs the rest of the time. It’s pathetic and I’d have a hell of a lot more respect for him if he was honest about this.


#639

But that’s the entire basis of the modern GOP.


#640

Which is exactly the problem it hasn’t budged, couple with it being above 100% which is historically a dangerous level. (see Greece) If you look at the chart you posted during the period of late 1990, our last boom period, Debt to GDP decreased by a full 10%. Twenty years early in the late 70s, also during a a good economy, it decreased by 5%. Starting from a much lower debt to GDP level.

Now ideally we should have seen a dip started the last year or two under Obama, but the great recession was very deep and the recovery slow. There is absolutely no excuse for the debt to not drop the last two year. Even less so, because the Republican Party use to have a reputation for at least trying to control government spending.


#641

Fair enough criticism, although I would argue that reforming corporate taxes was a higher priority. The strength of the economy over the last year does not suggest otherwise to me, feel free to disagree.


#642

Yes they are good numbers, and the market reacted appropriately, but they are lagging indicators. One of the problems with shutdown is that most of the treasury dept is shut down. Which besides the fairly well reported problems with the IRS trying to get deal with a whole tax law, and refunds likely to be delay, also mean that we aren’t collecting any leading indicators. None of the surveys of CEO, purchasing manager, consumer sentiment etc. Which means that the Fed and other policies makers are flying blind.


#643

I’ve always posted mostly about economics, because that is (in my mind at least) the most important political issue. Frankly, whenever I post here it’s mostly a bunch of slurs and insults hurled at me between various bouts of whataboutism and others saying “don’t engage with him”. I don’t really care, but dealing with it just isn’t a compelling use of my time.