With the talk of Gearbox developing the next Halo for the Next Xbox (Which I will bow call NeXBox till told otherwise) I was wondering when will it really begin.
Everyone is assuming that between 2012 and 2015 we will see new consoles from the 3 major players. I imagine that one of the three will have a new box for us to see by early 2011 for sale in 2012.
I kind of wonder with Nintendo making mad money with a cheap console aimed at families that new/old players (say NEC of LG Electronics) are considering testing the market with a similar system? Nintendo has proven that you don’t need to have the latest and greatest hardware to be a player in the videogame market. The concept of generations could get really messy really quick.
I’m really hoping that manufacturers delay a new console for as long as possible. Newer consoles generally mean fancier games, which means higher production values, which means fewer innovative games, more industry consolidation and a severely reduced focus on niche markets. Frankly I’d be happy if developers had a decade to perfect an engine and then compete on the gameplay front, and weren’t destroyed by the prospect of a fifty million dollar game standard.
If by “one of the three” you mean Microsoft, then yeah, I think that’s possible. I can’t imagine you’d see either of the other companies premiering an entirely new console by then, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a hefty revision of the Wii.
Well, the concept of generations has always been a fairly artificial construct. It just so happens that the last couple of gens have seen 3 major releases each within a year of the others. But there’s nothing truly sacred about it.
As for someone like NEC or LG breaking in, I just don’t see that happening. With all due respect, saying they can do what Nintendo has done seems incredibly naive. That’s like saying that Nokia’s N-Gage could easily be a real contender to the GameBoy Advance.
Nintendo has decades of experience and the strongest brand name in console (and handheld) gaming across multiple generations of machines and multiple generations of the people who buy them. They have massive expertise, a stable of world-class system-selling franchises, and (especially these days) very deep pockets. There’s no way anyone like NEC could compete these days. NEC had its chance, and they didn’t fare very well at all.
Maybe its the unmoving price of the perpetual updates/unfinished nature of the consoles, but I really feel like this generation hasn’t even ramped up yet. There is plenty that can be done with the hardware (even if the PC widens the gap every 6 months) and lots of consoles to be sold.
I also think MS and Sony will also happily wait a year if it means they can pack in a bigger hard drive and emphasize digital distribution even more. 2012 seems right.
It’s almost certainly a generation or two too early for this, but I’d love to see a download-only console. No disc drive. Even just a cheaper PSN or XBLA box would be a sign of great progress.
I’d rather see them come out later than sooner, but why does everyone think it’s going to take so long? Six years seems like a lot longer than it usually takes to come out with new consoles.
All games downloadable only (no more discs, trays, and no more console piracy)
Keyboard/Mouse capability and included; able to USB upload approved file formats (.wma, .gif, .jpg, etc. for in-console usage)
A sort of NexBox-only “Intranet” with forums and social network pages for members, gaming groups, clans, etc. (probably for a fee and then the owner can invite friends)
Huge solid-state drives, HD displays only, complete wireless standard for all controllers
ONE SKU
No memory cards; You log on, your profile and games saves are available
Completely separate from the PC for games; No cross-platform attempts, just focus on the one
One-time reboot OPTION for current gamertags and gamerscores
Regular Internet browsing capability if it is possible to do so without your console getting corrupted, highjacked, etc.
I think people are predicting a long generation primarily because none of the three have a compelling reason to go first.
The 360 is doing well and maintaining momentum, and the drastic November dash update indicates they intend to stick with it, as something that big of an overhaul would normally be reserved for a brand new system.
Sony needs to wring all the life they can out of the PS3 to justify the insane amount of money they spent to develop the thing. They’re a bit more locked in to a standalone 10 year life cycle on this one than they were on the PS2, which has obviously overlapped with the PS3 considerably.
And Nintendo is making money faster than they can manufacture their damn hardware, so I don’t see why they’d even consider a new system at this point.
If anyone is going to make the jump first, it’ll probably be Microsoft, at some point in the next few years when the PS3 is clearly outstripping the 360 in horsepower. That could also be further out than previously believed, though, judging by the 360’s performance thus far.
It’s only about one year longer, but here are the general reasons:
Both Sony and MS have said they want to extend out the life of these systems.
Unlike previous systems, significant updates can be done through patching of the OS.
Generally most of the money made on systems is at the <$200 price point, and companies usually get to that price ASAP and stay as long as possible. No system is there yet. If they don’t have to, they’d rather not cut the system’s late life short.
The biggest advantage of new systems is better graphics, and if this generation has proved anything its that “better graphics” is not the system seller it maybe used to be.
MS rushed out the 360 and it had all these problems, as well as being if anything slightly underpowered for the HD resolutions they were pushing. they probably don’t want to go first again.
As much as I hate it, I think we’re far off from a true digital distribution strategy with consoles. Retail is just too strong, and none of the first parties want to alienate the very companies they rely on to sell their products.
Right now we’re getting digital distribution of products that aren’t in retail stores anyway. There are some experiments, probably experiments that retails stores are complaining about privately.
It’s hard to say what’s next for consoles. It’d be hard to look at Nintendo’s success and simply write it off. The price point is a HUGE factor there. Console transitions are fun and exciting, but I don’t look forward to the next $599 console anymore, not when you can obviously launch a successful console at $249.
But Microsoft and Sony are deeply entrenched in the bigger/faster/prettier battle with each other. Do either of them have the gumption to take on Nintendo? Maybe one of them will do something weird like launch two different platforms - one aimed at the low and and one at the high end. Maybe one of them will keep their current platform viable for much longer than previously thought possible in order to reap the most benefit from the sub-$200 (or dare-say the sub-$100) price point.
Sony did a decent job with the PS2. It’s not huge this year, but it’s still a big platform, and they’re not even really pushing it. What if they did? What if they encouraged publishers to re-think the PS2 and really pushed their $129 console right at the Nintendo audience? Change up the form factor a little bit, bundle in a motion controller and a microphone, and throw it on the market for $149. Blam, new console platform with a games library in the thousands on day one.
Plus, lessons have been learned about launching at $400/$500, and a next-gen console is going to be $299 or less at launch. They’re only now selling 360s for $299, and the tech improvements at the same price point in four years aren’t going to be significant enough to matter to most people.
Or to put it another way, the 360’s graphics were state of the art 2005 and are now feasible at $299. The “NexBox”'s graphics need to be feasible at $299 from day one. If day one is 2012, then that means it’ll have the power of a state of the art PC circa 2009.
I’m a huge graphics whore, and even I’d have a hard time getting worked up about the difference between the Xbox 360 and next year’s high end gaming PC. The regular market won’t give even the faintest bit of a damn. Forget “Xbox 1.5”, it’ll be “Xbox 361”.
Can I just say that I dread the days of digitial-distribution only consoles?
Sure, I’ll be out of my parents’ house for good after this final year of college in Boston, but I know a ton of people in my hometown in TN who have zero access to broadband, and won’t be getting it anytime soon–simply put, their neighborhoods are too “far out” for the cable or DSL companies to provide access to. . . and if any of you have tried to download a large file on satellite, you know the horrors of download caps all too well.
I realize that the unbroadbanded population of the US is small, but it’s a hell of a lot larger here than the rest of the world. . . and watching the world go by me every summer and winter while I save .txt files of patch .exe links, youtube videos, and demos I want to try is torture. I’m just saying, try installing Ubuntu onto a dialup-only PC and then try updating that sucker. You’re in for some ultra-long nights. Hell, even the latest video card drivers typically clock in as 3 hour downloads for me =/.
Sorry, it’s a pissy little rant, but I’ve got to make it when I see things touting digital distribution as some sort of great savior of gaming–there are people out there who will not be able to take advantage of that sort of bandwidth for a decade or more =/.
Another problem with digital distribution beyond penetration in some areas is the cost of bandwidth. Next Gen consoles may have game double digit gigabyte footprints. In Canada most broadband providers have caps and dollar charges for overages, and to my knowledge some of the providers in the states are doing the same, or about to do so.
Each of the points he made is pretty much doable on a PC right now. Every generation of consoles (especially Microsoft’s) brings them closer to becoming a “PC”. His wish list bridges the gap even more, with mouse/kb, usb, intrernet, etc.
And seriously, a nextgen console for $300? You’re kidding yourself.
I know I’m being argumentative, but I wasn’t intending to debate my original point. I was merely pointing out how every time consoles ‘evolve’ they become more like a PC.
I guess I’m just being defensive of all the “PC gaming is doomed” crap I read.
Nextgen games will come in a size from 12 to 40 Gb. Who knows if even more. By 2012 we won’t have broadband for these sizes, at least a good % of the population won’t have it.
So forget the digital distribution only theory for at least 10 years more.
