The coming tide of deepfakes

Well I’m glad that’s all settled! I’m sure everybody on Facebook will trust this algorithm. 🙄

You know the obvious fakes will sail through while people with any sort of palsy, facial tics, paralysis, or just someone who uses funny facial expressions will get blacklisted.

There is a lot of work in generating temporally consistent video, making it fit with the dynamics if the modelled system. I wouldnt count on that sort of detection method lasting too long. Not least because any detection approach could be brought in to the network training.

The thing is that fakes do not need to fool everyone every time. All they need to do is muddy up the waters, such that anyone can shrug off the truth as fake, sending a lot of people back to believing what they wanted to believe in the first place. On the big stage, but even more so on the smaller stages.

I remember when, as an old guy, I fell in love with cell phones without knowing how to use one. It was the day the school I taught in banned cell phones because… there had been a fight on the stairwell between a popular football player and a nobody, and the office had suspended the nobody for causing the fight, and someone came forward with footage showing the football player pushing the other kid around. This scenario has a long history here, and school officials quite accurately understood that cell phones presented a serious challenge to “the way we do things around here.”

Needless to say, banning cell phones had no effect. And I was naive enough to think that video recording ability in the hands of the masses was going to be a longterm blow for the truth winning out.

But in an atmosphere were “everyone knows” the images can be faked? On the national stage, there will at least be public debate over whether the footage of a politician or a military attack was faked. But local authorities will regain a lot of their freedom to abuse and favor their favorites.

That’s similar to how I felt about the internet. I was so excited at the prospect of having this vast store of knowledge at everyone’s fingertips, that they could access without leaving their homes. And with search engines, it could be easy for people to find the information they were searching for.

Instead we’re awash in fake news and disinformation. I utterly overestimated people’s critical thinking skills and didn’t understand how powerful it would be for crackpots and crazies to form communities, whether that be (relatively benign) Flat-Earthers, the anti-vax movement, or hate groups of every flavor. I get depressed every time I think about it, and with deep fakes this is going to get a lot worse.

Underestimated?

Fixed. Thanks!

Someone is deep faking Kevin’s posts.

There was a time when I would ask questions of people on the internet and some would tell me to do the research myself and read what was available on the internet. Maybe that is good advice on subjects that are clearly black and white, plus or minus etc. But many questions are not that cut and dried and deciding who is believable on the internet is half the battle. Doing research and then being told your sources are all terrible sources doesn’t make things easier, in fact it makes it harder.

You can find what you are looking for, but whether you can believe what you find is the problem.

here here.

This is a fake news detector/generator that is fun to play with.

https://grover.allenai.org/

Try changing the headline and regenerating the text.

What kind of asshole develops that? A male asshole.

I think this is actually a huge problem that we’ll soon be facing. As much as this tech has evolved just in the last couple years, I can imagine it will pretty much be seamless and next to impossible to detect a decade from now. What then?

What happens when a week before the election an extremely convincing deep fake comes out with one of the candidates claiming to hate black people (or any of a million other things)? Just like that, a single person with a computer just decided the fate of the nation for the next 4 years.

What happens when somebody “leaks” a deep fake of the President taking credit for heinous terrorist attacks, or an assassination, or a secret military strike? Just like that, a single person with a computer potentially starts a war that could kill millions.

Or maybe it’s not a single person with a computer. Maybe it’s an enemy nation looking for an excuse to start a war. Now they can not only execute the false flag attack, but provide false proof to back it up.

This kind of tech could be used to destroy everything from your own personal relationships to the international relationships that hold our civilization together.

And as stated up thread, it threatens truth itself. Human beings in general (and some far more than others) are already ripe for manipulation and confirmation bias. This technology just kicked those doors down entirely, and I fear we’re now potentially on a path that leads straight to 1984.

I think it’s far likelier that people will simply stop believing in any piece of media that doesn’t conform to their preferred narrative, and thus genuine things that should provoke outrage will instead be ignored.

I mean, we’re basically there already, and deepfakes weren’t even necessary! As is usual with technology, they won’t fundamentally change the world as simply exacerbate the worst things about it.

Yeah, this seems likely, given what we already see. When someone like Trump tells objective lies, his supporters just handwave it away, either outright denying it happened (lying media!) or just say they don’t care.

It could lead to either, or maybe humanity will work it out. YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, etc. could implement an algorithm that checks if any video uploaded to their services are fake before allowing them to be seen. That will take away 99% of eyes from seeing whatever it is.

We’ve been here before with photoshop and images. Yet, fake images haven’t swung too many elections or started wars that I am aware of. We do all trust images much less now than we used to, which supports what @Kolbex is saying.

The other videos from CTRL SHIFT FACE are amusing/creepy too, but I love this one in particular for the meta.