The Mother 'Effin WEATHER Thread

[Alstein]

buried are harder to fix, and still can go out.

[Ginger_Yellow]

Sounding really bad for flooding:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina…20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall would produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Rest of South and North Carolina into southwest Virginia…6 to 12
inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by later this
morning or early this afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be nearing completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

[sillhouette]

Some times to watch

Thursday High Tide:

• 12:31 p.m.

Friday High Tide:

• 12:53 a.m.
• 1:20 p.m.

Saturday High Tide:

• 1:41 a.m.

[krayzkrok]

We have a portable, 2kva petrol generator for when our power goes out, like it did for a week early this year when a few trees blew over. Ours is enough to power a freezer, laptop, phone, portable fan. Some people get much larger ones wired up to their house system and can basically power everything including a/c as long as they have enough fuel, but we’re happy with the basics.

[TimJames]

The good news is the wind rating has been downgraded to category 2.

[abidingdude]

Here’s the bad news 👉

[Skipper]

Perhaps a better question is: why in the world are most of our power lines above ground instead of buried??

Hey, I can answer this one!

Ready for this? Cost.

Buried power transmission lines have a MUCH lower expected lifetime of operation, like nearly half as long. So power companies aren’t exactly keen to pay for what equates to double the cost of service, eating into profit and cost planning. In many neighborhoods and townships, some of that cost can be taken on by them instead of the power company as a draw to residents and to reduce issues from damaging wind storms. Note in this article, they are pushing back on power companies RE:costs and how much protection it can provide.

It gets to be a bigger issue with high power transmission, since no cost there is usually absorbed by anyone but the power company. And those too can be susceptible during storms. So just because your neighborhood might be okay, that doesn’t mean the runs going to your local power distribution point are okay, too.

[Clay]

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft

This is where I personally have my fingers crossed that it is wrong. My parents live in Beaufort, on the water, at the tip of the red arrow. They aren’t there, but their neighbors are. 12’ of storm surge will inundate their house. Luckily, a small island, called Carrot Island, shields them from the water coming right in the inlet. Most should get diverted up the Newport and North rivers.

Here’s the current view from their hammock (which is 10’ from their porch):

The boat is strapped down in the driveway, but the neighbors left theirs on the dock, so hopefully it doesn’t end up in my parents’ house.

[Skipper]

My parents live in Beaufort, on the water, at the tip of the red arrow.

Sorry to hear that, I’m hoping for the best for your folks, Clay. I was messaging a person I know down near Charleston yesterday that manages five properties there. She is not expecting things to go well. :(

[lordkosc]

Came across this tracker on the weather channel. Shows its progression since it started forming.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/AL062018

[CLWheeljack]

Buried power transmission lines have a MUCH lower expected lifetime of operation, like nearly half as long.

IIRC, there’s also some calculus of likelihood of wind damage for above ground lines vs likelihood of, e.g. flooding, which is more damaging to underground lines.

[Skipper]

I’m sure there is. Power companies are the penultimate planners if you think of it. They plan costs for long term, estimated repair costs, emergency costs, etc. Prior to this storm there are probably hundreds if not thousands of additional contracted linesmen that will be available post-storm, pulled from all around. It’s amazing how organized they are for things like this.

[Rightbug]

I work for a fiber company and so receive the daily weather utilities weather report which gives super detailed projections along with anticipated/potential utility impacts. When major weather events occur with widespread impacts anticipated, there are often three callls the day leading up to the event to help folks prepare and coordinate and make sure everyone has the latest info and then they Day after there are multiple calls to track recovery efforts. Once a given utility has their own issues under control they will generally offer to redirect their resources to assist other utilities.

In New England, ice crush and damage from melting snow are issues that need to be weighed when doing a cost benefit analysis on buried vs aerial.

[lordkosc]

Tri-State Weather

[KevinC]

I thought this tool was fascinating to watch, for those of us not in the path.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

[RichVR]

I use Ventusky.

Weather Forecast Maps

[Nesrie]

Typhoon Mangkhut looks not only bigger but it looks like it dropped, and now I am worried again.

[wisefool]

Am I the only one that tried to drag the hurricane off?

[Skipper]

In New England, ice crush and damage from melting snow are issues that need to be weighed when doing a cost benefit analysis on buried vs aerial.

Jeez … Ice crush? That’s uh … that’s a lot of ice!

At one time we had one of our North Dakota sites running off a generator during a storm. The generator was about a hundred yards from the main building, power was run via pole to pole aerial. An employee trying to clear the parking lot of snow wasn’t able to see where the parking lot ended and clipped one of the poles. So the best laid backup plan was hosed by a tractor.

Now everything we do is underground. And, of course, we’ve had runs clipped due to backhoes as well.

There really is no fault tolerant solution. :(

[lordkosc]

It’s coming! This live ocean cam is situated on a former coast guard observation tower on the Outer Banks off the coast of North Carolina.

I suggest turning the sound off.