The North Korea Thread

I can’t believe we’re at a point where we are conducting diplomacy on Twitter and don’t have a functioning State Department.

I wish Twitter would just ban Trump or do the public a favor and shut down.

https://twitter.com/Lkatzenberg/status/895974079559340037/photo/1

As noted elsewhere, this is implicitly an admission they are living up to the actual agreement text.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-warns-north-korea-youre-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-us/2017/08/11/a01a4396-7e68-11e7-9026-4a0a64977c92_story.html

“The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is complicated and sensitive,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a statement.

“China hopes that all relevant parties will be cautious in their words and actions, and do things that help to alleviate tensions and enhance mutual trust, rather than walk on the old pathway of taking turns in shows of strength, and upgrading the tensions.”

In an editorial, the Global Times said China should make it clear to both sides: “when their actions jeopardize China’s interests, China will respond with a firm hand.”

“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” it added. “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”

“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” it added. “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”

That’s completely vague and contradictory. If NK launches their missiles to hit the ocean 20 miles away from Guam, does that qualify as “threatening” US soil? Also, they’ll stay neutral as long as no one tries to change the NK regime? What? What other outcome would SK and the US be trying to attain by attacking NK?

It seemed fairly clear to me. If DPRK fires the first shot, then the Chinese will stand to the side and shake their billion heads ruefully as the US turns the North into a sterile wasteland. If the US attacks preemptively, then China will come to Kim’s aide.

20 miles offshore is international waters, per treaty, so that would not be “threatening US soil”. Dunno what 19 miles would mean.

It’s definitely clearer than whatever the leaders of NK and the US are putting forward in terms of current intentions.

No, he said “if the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime” China will step in. I’m guessing turning NK into a wasteland would violate that line.

There’s not a lot of point in trying to too finely parse a statement like that, especially considering it was obviously originated by (or translated by) a non-native english speaker. The general sentiment seems clear. China says don’t attack NK. But if NK attacks first, a proportionate response is allowed.

I guess you could read it that way, but coming after the first statement it seems to me like a pretty clear A vs B situation: If NK fires the first shot, China stays out of it; if the US fires the first shot, China comes in on DPRK’s side. They’re just qualifying it to say that they would consider the any actions like fomenting internal dissent or backing a political challenger to Kim as being akin to a first shot.

But as Tortilla points out, this is more a warning to Kim than to Trump.

I dunno, it kinda serves dual roles. For Kim it says “don’t you dare attack the US.” For Trump it says “don’t you dare fire the first shot.”

Because everyone can see that NK is trying to taunt the US into a pre-emptive strike, for whatever reason. I guess that assumes that a US first strike would be limited in scope and miss critical NK offensive infrastructure, so then NK could retaliate.

I’d agree. It’s vague enough to do both and I suspect that’s intentional.

Yeah, I’d say this is an intentionally vague statement that basically conveys “cut it out guys”. It warns Kim not to launch anything that might actually hit a US target, but it also warns Trump not to get ideas about sending a bunch of Tomahawks or dropping bombs on NK military targets as a preemptive move. It’s a sound reasoning on the part of China, and a hell of a lot more mature than anything Kim or Trump has said in the past week.

Honestly, Trump is once again showing what an imbecile he is. Kim Jong Un cannot afford to launch any sort of actual attack against the United States. He knows that as soon as he did, North Korea would become a pin cushion for U.S. and South Korean forces, and his regime would be over. He might have harbored some fantasy that China would enter a war on his side again, but China’s statement pretty much says that’s not going to happen if Kim makes anything that smells like a first move.

The proper move at this point is to release a statement from the White House that says the international community, including our friends in China, have made it clear that they will not tolerate Kim Jong Un attacking any other nation, and that the United States does not deem North Korea’s empty threats worthy of any further response.

Then take Trump’s phone away and smash it with a hammer, followed by locking him in the residence at the White House for about a month.

Both players need to rattle sabers to shore up domestic support.

Pretty goddamn dangerous game, IMO, as a hapless civilian.

In reality, this is actually just Trump saying that he has no idea what is actually in the agreement.

Seriously, he has no clue at all what the agreement says.

Probably he doesn’t, but I expect he has asked his experts to find a way to justify getting him out of the deal, and this is the best they could do.

Pence could stop it, if it came to it.

The only measure that could be taken at home, Blair said, is the invoking of Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the Constitution — which has never been used.

That section allows for the vice president, together with a majority of Cabinet heads or Congress, to declare the president disabled and unfit to execute the duties of the office. The vice president would have to submit a written declaration to the speaker of the House and president pro tempore of the Senate explaining why the president is unable to fulfill his duties. If approved, the vice president would take over.

They also have the “2nd Man” rule

Only the President can direct the use of nuclear weapons by U.S. armed forces, including the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). While the President does have unilateral authority as commander-in-chief to order that nuclear weapons be used for any reason at any time, the actual procedures and technical systems in place for authorizing the execution of a launch order requires a secondary confirmation under a two-man rule, as the President’s order is subject to secondary confirmation by the Secretary of Defense. If the Secretary of Defense does not concur, then the President may in his sole discretion fire the Secretary. The Secretary of Defense has legal authority to approve the order, but cannot veto it.

Basically, yeah, he can order it, but the military has been sworn to protect the U.S. from all enemies, foreign and domestic, and if they think that doing something like a pre-emptive first-strike of nuclear arms is harmful to the U.S. they have the ability and duty to deny that order. This isn’t some machine, this is a decision making process that needs the President’s O.K. to start, but he isn’t the sole person making the missiles fly into the air.

Though… I doubt the DPRK has similar stopgaps in place to prevent something like that happening.

Okay, you evangelical right-wing Republican, you. Feel like saving the human race?

Pence is probably a real Rapture Raptor. My guess is one bigass burnt offering to bring Jesus back down from heaven. The ash will make for a soft pillowy landing, I’m sure.