Estes is tight with the incredibly unpopular Governor – so can’t put a close race entirely down to anti-Trump sentiment here.
I think it ends up as Estes +9 when all votes are counted. Still think the Paul Hackett comparison fits.
There’s some people disagreeing whether the Democrats institutions/players should have gone big with support in this race… Some people think in a +30 deep red Republican district this would be terrible strategy and raise Republican turnout, and odds of an unlikely upset are increased by the race remaining kind of low profile. I don’t know. I can see it either way I guess.
Probably the biggest thing Thompson had going for him was that most Trump supporters probably didn’t even realize they were having an election.
Looking at Thompson’s campaign ads, he really played down the angle that he was a Democrat. Ran as a veteran, disaffected with the status quo, jobs, etc. I think if the DCCC had jumped in heavily, this is the kind of district where it might have done more harm than good. The grassroots campaigning was a perfect strategy.
Two points, both valid to take away:
Is there any news or reports out of the DNC and what they’ve been doing now that Tom Perez has been chairman for a month and a half? Signs that their “ground game” might actually learn from their mistakes?
Basically, can we attribute this swing in Kansas to the DNC, or in spite of the DNC?
I admit my error, 6% is closer than I expected.
I still don’t think it means much, but it’s closer than I thought it would be.
The DNC has little, if anything to do with this race. This is the purview of the DCCC.
Here’s the most important point to absorb about the DNC and the RNC: most of the time, they are of only marginal importance.
The RNC, for example, has been a dumpster fire for years now. Michael Steele was a joke - but that didn’t stop the Republicans from regaining control of the House. Trump fought it and openly mocked it, and look where he is now. And Obama also won despite not being the DNC pick at the beginning.
Given its marginal role, obsessing over the national committees is a recipe for disappointment. Factions attribute magical powers to them they don’t have, and then when they get control of the committee they’re disappointed to learn those powers are largely imaginary.
What wins elections are strong candidates running strong campaigns on strong issues. Have those things and funding and success will follow. Have weak candidates, weak campaigns, and weak issues, and the best-run national committee imaginable won’t help much.
Don’t feel bad - I was guessing 15%, myself. Agreed that it’s not as big as if this had been a normal election result, but it certainly bears watching.
Hey, closing a 30+ advantage-R district to 6 points is pretty huge. Even more so considering it was almost entirely a grassroots effort.
Last generic congressional poll I saw had Dems +9. If that kind of enthusiasm holds, we’ll have the House for sure.
Unfortunately those numbers are before any big Republican media push, and if there’s one thing they spend money on, unlike the Democrats, it’s congressional races. Let’s see what the polls are like next summer.
Keep in mind that in the KS-04, the Republicans absolutely did pour money, resources, and huge media buys in the last two weeks…
Y’all are talking around the results.
I’m now seeing blowback that driving a district that was +27 in the fall down into the single digits is nothing special, because the election was in Kansas, and Republicans are unpopular in Kansas right now because people are sick of Sam Brownback. So this is just a Kansas-specific thing, the thinking goes.
This misses the forest for the trees. Republicans aren’t unpopular in Kansas because it was Sam Brownback in particular who showed up to sell voters a shit sandwich. Republicans are unpopular in Kansas because it’s now very clear that the Republican party has nothing but shit sandwiches to sell.
Brownback isn’t an exception or a freak or an aberration. Brownback simply implemented the same sorts of policies advocated by the President, the heads of both houses of Congress, and the controlling caucus in the House. Kansas was always meant to be a test bed for GOP policies … which is why they’re now starting to look nervous as the test results start heading in the wrong direction.
Honestly, it’s more likely that it was a special election, which will always drive turnout way down.
I mean, you can look to it as a good sign, but I think you’re setting yourself up for a fall if you place too much weight on it.