Point taken.
Thank you for saying so. And again forgive me if I was harsh. You nailed my biggest two pet peeves at once, bad historical analogies and “you can’t handle the truth” rhetoric. ;)
My stance is that not everyone in Russia believes that Ukraine or its current government is some kind of fascist danger to Russia that would justify this invasion. Witness the many pictures of anti-war demonstrations in Russia proper (which action takes some guts, given the Putin government’s attitude toward dissenters).
I’m sorry that your brother in law is stuck in Kyiv, due to the general mobilization of men 18 to 60 I assume. I hope he comes to no harm from any party, either from (fellow?) Ukrainians or from the likely coming artillery attack on Kyiv by the Russian invaders.
Bottom line, nothing justifies this invasion of a sovereign nation by Russian military forces. Given their numbers they will probably win eventually, but that would be sad. I doubt very much that the resulting regime would be kinder to Ukrainians.
Interesting. These are the only Scorpions in Russia I know about: Scorpions Wind Of Change(Russian Version) - YouTube
Nobody I know believes that the invasion is a good idea. But, on the other hand, nobody in Russia I know believes that NATO expansion is a good idea, either. Could we settle on “no expansion and no invasion”, please?
That was the de facto situation before this invasion, no? (well, except for the fact that Russia gobbled up Crimea in 2014 out of spite because its puppet Yanukovich got booted by his people, disgusted by his misgovernment)
I don’t think you’re going to get any pushback on that. In fact, it was the proposed solution for pretty much everyone in the world beside Vladimir Putin. :)
And let me echo what others have said about your family. I wish the best for those stuck in Ukraine and I’m glad to hear your wife made it to Poland.
-Tom
They would if the US gets a heavy internal conflict that lasts a good while.
Otherwise, i don’t see it. I suspect China thinks the US might nuke over it, or cut them off from financial world entirely. This is why we need to punish Russia economically as much as possible, it discourages China.
I mean, there is a bit of a difference between nations voluntarily signing a defensive treaty and nations being involuntary invaded.
If Russia would actually completely withdraw from the all territories they seized and promise never to invade again in exchange for an agreement for Ukraine to never join NATO I’m pretty sure they’d go for that in a heartbeat. Since the whole reason to join NATO is so that the Russians doesn’t invade. They likely could have gotten that without an invasion.
Of course, we know what Putin’s promises are worth.
Oh good we’re back to the NATO discussion. I see zero evidence that Russia wouldn’t be invading Ukraine right now had nobody ever mentioned anything about Ukraine maybe join NATO at some point in the future.
I should add, I’m more in favor now of NATO expansion than I was a year ago.
I think the argument now is that Russia is justified in invading Ukraine because of the eastern europe countries joining since the 90s.
As has been said, that was the steady state up until last week, and we (the West) were fine with it. But it also needs to be said that NATO is a mutual defense agreement, not an occupation by a government. Those are very different things.
To be sure, based on that leaked and removed Russian media piece, Russia considers Ukraine to be part of Russia that needs to be taken back, so Ukraine joining NATO seems to be contrary to that, but the final question is what possible expansionist ideas do we ascribe to NATO? It has none. We are in a post-NATO post-invasion world, at least until the last week happened. The only reason Ukraine would consider joining NATO is to hold off Russian aggression, which seems to be a decent idea these days. Russia was not and would not and shall not be threatened by the EU or NATO, they are the wild card that everyone is worrying about. If they stop being that wild card, then absolutely nothing bad happens, and probably a lot of good things happen.
We also have a new perspective on their recent intervention in Kazakhstan. A former Soviet Republic, coincidence? I think not.
There almost has to have been some thought in Putins mind where he could see himself pulling the Kazakhs in as well, although given the strong ties between Kazakhstan and Russia, probably not a pressing matter.
I just did a little peek on Wikipedia, and this now looks ominous as fuck. Maybe the clues were there all along?
In 2013, President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood”, in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhstanis. Putin’s remarks on the matter led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate, which effectively refutes Putin’s claim that a Kazakh nation has never existed. He also threatened to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, saying that the independence of the country is his “most precious treasure” and that Kazakh’s “will never surrender” their independence.
And now media are reporting that the convoy is 40 miles long. Did they just add another 23 miles of vehicles, or is it the same vehicles stretched out over a longer trail, or what?
This could all be solved if Russia would just become a democracy and join NATO. That would certainly resolve any security concerns they would have. I mean if their greatest concern is security, that would solve that problem. :)
Somewhat pointed question: talk to whom, and to what end? Putin?
There has been no movement or even consideration for Ukraine too move towards NATO or the EU over the last almost decade. There was some discussion pre Crimea, but nothing serious and not something that would have advanced regardless.
What has happened seems pretty unilateral on Vlad’s part. He was the one who changed the status quo and pushed military action. We all saw it happening, this was his choice, his action was not forced by some outside operator.
So what diplomacy should the Ukrainian government have done prior? ‘don’t invade my country, ok?’ Like I don’t see what diplomatically they could have done to prevent this. Once the buildup had started, the die had been cast.
Right, if NATO somehow engulfed the Russian Federation, what would happen next? Nothing. There would be peaceful trade and travel and everything else. Flip side, Russia could go full North Korea and decide that they are just too special to join in the community of nations and become a pariah of, let’s face it, roughly 95% European-esque population. The driving force here is Russian ideas of being a controller rather than a partner. The world is their oyster if they just want to play nice.
The funny thing is that up until the moment of invasion, every Russian statement and diplomat was swearing on their mother’s grave that there was no invasion. Just military exercises. A bit awkward to try to negotiate to avert an invasion when they insist that there’s no danger of it.
Since my history geek nerve was hit it got me thinking. Perhaps the closest US imperialist analogies would be of course the Mexican American war, and (for Crimea especially) the occupation of the port of Veracruz in 1914.
Veracruz was justified by the government as a unstable neighboring regime that was allegedly getting an arms shipment and could potentially ally with a hostile power.
(This has been your history minute)