Week 3 NFL picks

Tough week, I gotta spend some time with my Ouija board.

I think Roethlisberger’s biggest problem is that he’s not really that good, and the Steelers couldn’t run on Monday. He gets hyped because he won so many games in his first two seasons, but a lot of those games he threw for less than 200 yards (and only threw for over 300 once, in a loss). He threw for less than 150 yards with no TDs and 2 INTs in the Super Bowl, but because they won nobody mentions that he was a huge liability in the game.

Maybe he’s still hurt, and maybe he’ll get better as the season goes along. But unless they get the running game going I don’t think he’s good enough. He’s used to throwing on second and 5 off play-action, not second and 12 when the defense is dropping seven into coverage.

It’s true… you don’t need a great QB to win championships. Witness, say, Mark Rypien, who benefitted hugely from that amazing hog OL.

And if BaconTastesGood follows up with what I know he’s thinking, there’ll be trouble. ;)

I’d pretty much concur with that, but I’d give Big Ben a bit more credit. He doesn’t throw for a lot of yards, but he’s not often put in scenarios where he is asked to. He’s big, has good vision, and most importantly for the Steelers style of football, he’s pretty good at avoiding sacks. Not in a scamper-away Michael Vick style but in a big huge hard-to-haul-down way. Even in the loss Monday he showed that a few times where he made a few pretty good throws with a defender clinging to him.

I think he just need some more game time to get in rythym and he’ll be fine.

Actually, Big Ben is not rated well by lots of people that go by pure numbers…he makes bad decisions, doesn’t hit open guys, sometimes throws roughly… I’m still not sold on him. My congrats to him on winning the super bowl and more power to him, but I don’t think he’s the most impressive QB by any means.

I don’t think anyone thinks he’s the most impressive QB. He’s probably not top tier (Brady, Manning, maybe Hasslebeck) but he’s certainly one of the top QBs in the league - probably one of the top ten.

Make no mistake, Ben is a passing QB, or at least grew up as one - his numbers and performance at Miami of Ohio during the MAC’s surge proves it. However, at Pitt, it’s a whole different system, and the play is vastly different and much tougher obviously. Ben is in his third year and honestly probably wouldn’t have started any of his first year games.

He’s definitely not amogst the most impressive in the NFL, he still needs a few years. And less motorcycle accidents.

— Alan

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Chicago at Minnesota
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Detroit
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo
Tennessee at Miami
Washington at Houston
Baltimore at Cleveland
N.Y. Giants at Seattle
Philadelphia at San Francisco
St. Louis at Arizona
Denver at New England
Atlanta at New Orleans

I disagree. Here is a list of QBs I think are better than Roethlisberger: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Kurt Warner, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Mark Brunell, Brad Johnson, Trent Green, Mark Bulger, Jake Plummer, Jake Delhomme, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, and maybe even David Carr. I’d put Roethlisberger in the same category as Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Charlie Frye and Andrew Walter. Young QBs with a good college resume who have yet to prove themselves in the NFL.

If you can’t prove yourself by winning a Super Bowl, what can ya do?

Don’t you know? You have to win two these days.

That being said, we all know there have been a lot of winning Superbowl QBs that aren’t really that good. Trent Dilfer is a pretty good example.

— Alan

Or the aforementioned Mark Rypien.

Roethlisberger is the real deal. Sure there are better QBs, but I think he’s on the sub-Elite level with Delhomme and McNair. No way Eli and Warner are better than Roethlisberger.

Actually, I think if you can thread a needle from 80 yards with a football, can run a sub-4.5 40, can read a defense perfectly, and yet can’t win games with a semi-decent team around you, then there’s something fundamental to the position of QB that’s missing from you.

People just call leadership an “intangible” because they don’t know how to time it with a stopwatch.

Indeed, Trent Dilfer is the greatest QB of all time. Better than Marino by at least a factor of ten.

Ah the fun part of these discussions:

  • Delhomme is good only insofar as he’s throwing to someone named Steve Smith. See: NFC Championship vs. Seattle
  • Michael Vick isn’t a very good quarterback. He’s a fine running back though. He’s definitely not as good as Roethlisberger.

Also Warner had a couple of good seasons and since then has not been very good. Roethlischicken is better than him.

Rypien’s SB season was amazing. Seriously. Best deep ball passing in 20 years, he was on fire. The OL helped, but realistically, EVERY great passer has benefited from a great OL so that’s not really saying much.

And if BaconTastesGood follows up with what I know he’s thinking, there’ll be trouble. ;)

What I’m thinking is that you don’t know jack about football, but that’s hardly any trouble to me.

When I’m comparing players, I try to imagine them on each other’s team. Would Roethlisberger make the Cardinals better? I don’t think he would. He might be better than Carr on the Texans, but only because he’s bigger and therefor more able to absorb 68 sacks in a season.

He’s a good leader on the team, players respond to him. Mechanically he can be real off.

Watch clips of the MNF game again – he’s throwing off his back foot a lot, and that shows in his passes. He’s not terribly accurate, but he doesn’t make completely screwed up reads. I think part of this is that the Steelers don’t ask him to make really complicated reads, and they give him passing downs that are often reasonably short yardage.

I think Ben’s good, but he’s not as good as his reputation since he’s benefited from a beastly running game, one of the best WRs in football, and a ridiculously good defense.

Ben’s average passes per game are much lower than the other Steeler’s QB, something that a lot of people overlook.