It's time to have a 2020 Presidential Election thread

scottagibson · July 11, 2020, 7:55pm

I think that’s a shitshow. No rules or procedure really exist. For Democrats, I imagine superdelegates could be canvassed. I think that makes it less likely that Bemie is the nominee, but it’s possible.

legowarrior · July 11, 2020, 7:59pm

Here’s the thing about Biden. You looks fucking awesome in Aviator Glasses and Mask. If I were him, I would always be wearing that, even if I was at home. Its probably what is going to keep him safer then almost all of us on this forum.

https://sports.yahoo.com/joe-biden-wears-mask-1st-163404462.html

magnet · July 11, 2020, 8:18pm

Actually, rules for replacing a nominee already exist.

Article 2, section 1 of the Rules and Bylaws of the Democratic Party states that the DNC has the authority to fill vacancies in the nominations for president and vice president. “The Democratic National Committee shall have general responsibility for the affairs of the Democratic Party between National Conventions, subject to the provisions of the Charter and to the resolutions or other official actions of the National Convention. This responsibility shall include, but not be limited to … Filling vacancies in the nominations for the office of the President and Vice President,” reads Article 2.1(c).

Article 2, section 7 states, “a special meeting to fill a vacancy on the National ticket shall be held on the call of the Chairperson, who shall set the date for such meeting in accordance with the procedural rules provided for in Article Two, Section 8(d) of these Bylaws.” Article 2, section 8(d) reads, “all questions before the Democratic National Committee shall be determined by majority vote of those members present and voting in person or by proxy.”

…

Rule 9 of the 2016 Rules of the Republican Party says that if a Republican candidate for president or vice president leaves the race due to “death, declination, or otherwise” after the national convention, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has the authority to fill a vacancy by a majority vote of its 168 members or by reconvening the national convention.

If the RNC took the latter route—reconvening the national convention—the logistics and details of this are unknown, but the basic idea is that the right to fill the vacancy would have been handed over to the 2,472 delegates of the national convention.

Gordon_Cameron · July 11, 2020, 8:26pm

At some point stuff starts to get decided by single combat, right? I think that’s in the Constitution somewhere.

magnet · July 11, 2020, 8:27pm

There can be only one.

triggercut · July 11, 2020, 9:13pm

Something that occurred to me today, seeing a montage of Nick Cave photos.

If Nick stopped coloring his hair jet black, and once he ages about 15 years…he’s completely sporting a Joe Biden lockdown haircut.

inactive_user · July 11, 2020, 9:42pm

Heh. I’m so mad that the Rona is fucking me out of my chance to see him that was set for September.

strummer · July 12, 2020, 12:04am

They told us our gods would outlive us
They told us our dreams would outlive us
They told us our gods would outlive us
But they lied

I’m not sure this is bringing much comfort to the skittish in this thread.

MikeOberly · July 12, 2020, 2:30pm

Don’t believe it, but for the record.

triggercut · July 12, 2020, 2:57pm

Note that it’s an LV screen and not RV screen here, too. (Likely voter screens are typically kinder to Republican presidential candidates.)

scottagibson · July 12, 2020, 3:03pm

Curious how LV screens actually work? Is it a question asked of the poll respondent, or is it inferred from the demographic responses from the poll respondent? Or both?

triggercut · July 12, 2020, 3:09pm

Great question.

I think there are some pollsters who use actual voter rolls for this determination, but most honestly do not, and rely on self-reported voting behavior. This CBS poll, run by YouGov (who is generally pretty good) is a self-reported behavior screen, per its crosstabs.

scottagibson · July 12, 2020, 3:14pm

On the current trajectory I don’t think it is out of the question that Biden could be competitive in Texas, though I would have guessed that his chances were better in Arizona and Florida. So that Texas & Arizona result is a bit surprising to me.

Menzo · July 12, 2020, 3:17pm

Oh USA Today. Why are you so terrible?

Here’s the headline:

Here’s the text:

Actually, pollsters got it mostly right four years ago.

They had Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 percentage points. She won by 2.1 points. And they were right about the outcome in most states. But their research did not capture the full picture of voter sentiment in the upper Midwest that provided Trump with the margin of victory in the Electoral College.

Woolen_Horde · July 12, 2020, 3:18pm

There have been higher hopes of turning Texas purple for years. Arizona is basically Texas without large liberal populations.

scottagibson · July 12, 2020, 3:23pm

Yes, I lived there for thirty years. I was going on earlier polls, which showed Biden up by a bigger margin than that YouGov / CBS poll and which have also showed Kelly with a significant lead over McSally.

Menzo · July 12, 2020, 3:24pm

I think, more than anything, Texas either going blue or even being close would be the “come to Jesus” moment for the Republican party. I mean if they lose Texas, can they ever win another Presidential election?

inactive_user · July 12, 2020, 3:26pm

I mean they’d have to flip what, WI + PA permanently and that’s still 30 EVs to 38 from TX.

Menzo · July 12, 2020, 3:29pm

Then again, they’ll probably just say “it was Coronavirus” and agree that they don’t need to change anything. Hello presumptive nominee Tucker Carlson in 2024!

HumanTon · July 12, 2020, 3:38pm

At Gallup at least the likely voter screen is some kind of proprietary special sauce they don’t want to discuss in public.

Pew gives a bit of an idea of the sorts of questions they use to identify likely voters, but not the weighting involved (or whether it includes other factors like age, gender etc.):

We use a lengthy set of questions to assign each respondent a score on the likely voter scale in our final pre-election poll. Earlier in the campaign, we often use a somewhat shorter version of the scale to identify likely voters. The set of questions may include some or all of the following:

• How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election?
• How closely have you been following news about the candidates?
• Do you plan to vote in the presidential election? How certain are you that you will vote?
• Rate your chance of voting in November on a scale of 10 to 1, with 10 being “definitely will vote” and 1 “definitely will not vote.”
• How often do you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs?
• Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
• How often would you say you vote?
• Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
• In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?